In its latest assessment, the German Council of Climate Experts has confirmed the Federal Environment Agency's emissions forecasts: Germany will fall below the permitted annual CO₂ level in 2024 – but there can be no talk of the all-clear. The climate target will be clearly missed in the building sector in particular. Between 2021 and 2030, over 110 million tons of CO₂ could be emitted too much here. The 2040 target (-88% emissions compared to 1990) is also at risk of being missed in the long term - the Expert Council currently expects a maximum of 80%.

What will the new GEG bring?

While no new measures have to be presented in the short term, the German government is legally obliged to present a comprehensive climate protection program within twelve months. The focus here is on the three major emitters: Transport, agriculture – and the building sector, in particular the heat supply. The current Building Energy Act (GEG) is already part of the underlying projections. However, it remains unclear whether a planned new addition to the GEG will have the necessary effects.

Building sector remains a problem child – heat pumps as a beacon of hope

Despite the legal reforms, the heating transition remains the major deficit. This mainly affects existing buildings, in which fossil heating systems still dominate. However, the German Heat Pump Association (BWP) points to a clearly positive trend: In the first quarter of 2025, heat pumps already accounted for over 40% of heating sales. In its report, the Expert Council confirms that ambitious targets in the GEG and targeted funding are essential in order to sustainably transform the building sector.

Scientific studies support this approach: depending on the type of building and system integration, heat pumps can achieve a coefficient of performance (COP) of up to 4, making them significantly more efficient and climate-friendly than gas or oil heating systems. In combination with photovoltaics and storage solutions, even CO₂-neutral heat supply systems can be realized – especially through sector-coupled concepts such as PAUL Net Zero.

Let's talk about PAUL Net Zero – get in touch now.

Decarbonization requires long-term planning and investment

According to the Council of Experts, the planned climate protection program must not only specify the pathways up to 2030, but also include a strategy for the period up to 2040 for the first time. The focus will shift to technical CO₂ sinks, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or biomass cogeneration (BECCS). According to the Federal Environment Agency, the role of natural sinks – such as forests and peatlands - also remains central, but is currently on uncertain ground.

Meanwhile, criticism is coming from environmental associations: while Deutsche Umwelthilfe, for example, criticizes the cross-sectoral budget approach as window-dressing, Agora Energiewende points to the high costs of non-compliance with the EU targets – up to 34 billion euros could be incurred by Germany.

Heat pumps essential for achieving climate targets

The Expert Council's review report is a clear signal: without a substantial expansion of the heating transition – particularly through the widespread use of heat pumps – the climate targets will remain out of reach. Investments in CO₂-free heating systems, smart control technology and decentralized energy supply must become the core of future building policy. This is the only way to turn the building sector from an emissions problem into a climate protection solution.

Let's talk about PAUL Net Zero – get in touch now.